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Usually, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple script. It often serves as a kind of apology. Sorry we underestimated your squad in our pre-campaign forecasts.

On paper, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the coach who orchestrated the most dramatic turnaround is handed the prize. In reality, it creates an annual discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly rewarding excellent leadership or merely the greatest shock.

But the latest field is distinctly unique. The pool of contenders is exceptionally talented. It has been the year of resurgences. The NFL has been unpredictable, with recent division winners falling away and longtime strugglers rising together. During an typical year, a coach guiding the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the stone-cold front-runner. But in such a turbulent and fun season, he's up against five other outstanding coaches.

Here is how the hypothetical ballot ought to look.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors love quarterbacks. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. When you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach not only fixed his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. In the right ecosystem, Williams has been given the chance to demonstrate his otherworldly talent. Since midseason onward, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a hot streak – it's prolonged performance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become more decisive, far less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the system instead of going rogue. It is an attack built entirely in the coach's image: a physical ground attack, a consistent dose of play-action and a creative passing attack that frees wide receiver receivers consistently. The QB has thrived. And when easy reads weren't available, he's been able to spin big plays from nothing.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a defined offensive vision. Almost every decision – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, turning Williams into a rhythm passer – has paid off. That's rare for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer still for a leader who entered the building with the kind of pressure Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the top name on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no guarantees. Somehow, he has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive wizard but the type of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

During a ordinary season, Johnson would be the clear-cut favorite. Yet the current isn't a normal year!

The area where Johnson's case comes slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears presently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously unreliable. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is legitimate. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. With a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be several victories behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is established for sustained success. However Johnson falls short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a similar situation to his counterpart. He's another first-time leader who has masterminded a swift resurgence. During the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has mastered the leadership stuff, which was not a given after his initial press conference appearances and some of his preseason moves.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed their staff with the ideal coaching blend of youth and veteran savvy, Coen hired first-timers. Starting with the leader on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That kind of approach is intriguing on paper, but frequently collapses in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a their job in real-time. But Coen has pulled the entire group and everything into sync.

Following an initial hot beginning, there was a chance that the campaign would go off the track. A midseason collapse caused the team stumbling once more. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. Coen did not. Instead, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run plays and started seeking consistent ones. Coen refocused the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are evident. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. He gets the slightest deduction in the rankings because he took over a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year argument has a defining moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback decision.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a new quarterback and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator could have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it defined it. By the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has fallen away since that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, placing him only a single spot ahead of peers.

Still